An Infrastructure Bill, a Reconciliation Bill, a Potential Govt. Shutdown, and Debt Limit Disputes All Walk Into a Bar...
Spoiler: The subject matter of this joke may very well be bought-out politicians, Biden incompetency, and Washington shenanigans, but the butt of it, sadly, is the American people.
With the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the reconciliation package, the potential for a government shutdown, and the disputes over the debt ceiling all caked in bureaucratic clown makeup and rolling down a hill seemingly at once, it's once again clear that D.C. has unleashed another fun house scenario of the flavor of absurdity that could only be produced by the twisted limbs of our political apparatus. It's this big week of the grand legislative circus that has brought nothing but set ups for cruel jokes that are probably only funny to a select few.
For months now, the plan for the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill— which focuses on hard infrastructure and has passed the Senate— and the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill— which proposes much needed change since it's perhaps the most transformational legislation in this country since the New Deal, though that's not a highly competitive status— has been to pass them together, and for a long time that seemed like a tough but feasible challenge.
However, in late September, it seems less and less possible to keep the two bills coupled together, and for a list of reasons stemming from various actors in and around Washington.
With the bipartisan bill passed in the senate, "moderate" corporate democrats Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have been vocal about not supporting the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill.
Having been resistant to much of the package, including the drug price reform that beckoned her Big Pharma donors' denunciation, Sinema has said that she is not in favor of corporate or income tax increases even as those are the very things that would fund it.
With all the questions about pay-fors and fiscal responsibility followed by a subsequent flat out refusal to even consider the manner in which the reconciliation bill would pay for itself is absurd.
Though, that doesn't mean its surprising. This had seemed to be the case unfolding even a few months ago when Manchin seemed wounded at the thought of the climate provisions that threaten his fossil fuel and coal interests. That's the thing: money, not meaningful change, talks.
Manchin, of course, wrote his op-ed in The Wall Street Journal earlier in September urging a strategic pause to asses the direction of the pandemic and inflation in an attempt to paint his obstructionist and selfish stubbornness as thoughtful pragmatism. That is obviously an element of political theater that obfuscates with word salads and hollow principles from the fact that it's donors and interests that are guiding the "moderates." That's why "moderate" is in quotes— the label is, in fact, a mask, a cover up, a decoy vital to the success of a bank heist.
The Senator from West Virginia, along with the media that supports the narrative, reasons that his actions are necessary given his conservative constituents. However, that is an oversimplification that distracts from the fact West Virginia ranks 4th in highest statewide poverty rate, 43rd in health care quality, and 50th in wellbeing/health of its citizens. In other words, things like a child tax credit, lower prescription drug prices, and Medicare expansion are important to West Virginians. Heck, even his constituents recently held a protest while floating in kayaks outside Manchin's infamous yacht.
Sinema has been even a little more brash and careless of optics and repercussions, which is no surprise given she's the kind of person to snap selfies of herself sipping cocktails while wearing a "Fuck Off" ring after enthusiastically giving a thumbs down on raising the federal minimum wage.
The Arizona Senator does not even seem interested in hiding the meetings she's having with big corporations that openly oppose the reconciliation bill.
Again, the media has been casting this as a "progressives-versus-moderates showdown" playing out in the Democratic Party, which is an obvious way to muddy the donor-made reality that is truly sinking the chances for passing this transformational budget reconciliation. Manchin and Sinema can say "No reconciliation until 2022" and the media will just sit there and talk about complex constituents and sensational takes on infighting.
Even the nine "moderate" House Democrats, led by Josh Gottheimer, have contributed to this with phony concerns that are really just disguises for passing the bipartisan bill on its own to appease their own Big Pharma and Big Oil donors.
This "moderate Democrats" crap has been the most enduring shadow that lurks over this bill, but it's threatened by other factors as well.
Not far behind, is the uncertainty surrounding the progressives' will to hold the line on keeping the bipartisan bill and reconciliation coupled.
Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus Pramila Jayapal has noted throughout the process that House progressives have the ability to sink the bipartisan bill if the moderates don't play ball. Even this week she noted that the votes for it aren't there.
Rep. Ilhan Omar has declared that progressives "aren't bluffing," and that may very well be their intention, but a few factors may make matters more complicated for that stance.
Most prominent among them is Speaker Nancy Pelosi's rickety commitment to holding off on the bipartisan bill if the reconciliation bill is not completed. Late on Monday night, Pelosi explicitly said that it's a bad idea to put off the bipartisan bill until the Senate passes the budget reconciliation bill.
In accordance with Gottheimer and the nine "moderates" in the House, Pelosi agreed to a September 27 (that was Monday) House vote on the bipartisan bill which cued the proverbial ticking clock in the lead up to this week. Instead of following the arbitrary deadline, Pelosi kicked the can down the road a slight bit, ultimately promising a vote on both bills this week.
This appeared to give progressives the room needed to use the leverage of potentially sinking the bipartisan bill if decoupling were to take place, but, really, all Pelosi did was just signal that she's not going to wait around for the reconciliation bill to hold a vote on the bipartisan bill, likely in favor of the "moderates." She's vowing for a Thursday vote on the bipartisan bill, but it's clearly no longer conditioned on pairing it with a reconciliation vote.
As the bipartisan bill takes on more water and begins to sink, it's only made worse by the unfathomable languor of the Biden administration.
Both these bills, together, are the largest components of the Biden agenda— not just in 2021 or in his first Congress, but in his whole presidency. Why is it, then, that Biden, from the executive cockpit, has decided to hit autopilot?
Despite the massive implications for his legacy— and legacy is everything to career politicians— Biden has been missing in action amid this legislative circus. Other than telling "moderate" Democrats to figure it out with the highest number they can agree on for reconciliation, Biden has been nonexistent on Capitol Hill.
Joe Biden, in his fossilized kink for bipartisanship, has allowed these "moderates" to begin poking all sorts of holes in the reconciliation bill, threatening the entire package. The only future this bill has is one that is scaled back, and this is directly due to Biden's incompetence and willingness to roll over. He and Democrats have already begun considering income caps (i.e. means testing) for electric vehicle rebates and free community college.
Past presidents have been down there whipping votes and using their executive status to appeal to congressional leaders. With any legacy-establishing legislation, one would think the president would want to have their hands on the matter, but Biden has consistently checked out of the conversation. As a result, Biden is allowing this legislative fiasco to steer this nation to some bad places.
On top of missing out on massive social improvements, the full assault on the reconciliation bill spells out further follow-on effects for the nation.
If the budget resolution is not passed or if a stopgap funding bill, known as a continuing resolution, is not passed by midnight on Thursday, it will trigger a government shutdown, meaning hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be furloughed. The last time the government shut down, it was between Christmas 2018 and January 25, 2019, causing federal workers to miss out on two whole paychecks. It's hard to estimate how long this potential shutdown would last, but it likely wouldn't be too long considering it would end with any budget agreement— however, it's worth noting that this would be a shutdown in the middle of a pandemic headed back towards another winter.
So it sounds simple considering any budget agreement at all will do, but with the deadline for either suspending or raising the debt ceiling, the matter is more complicated due to partisan shenanigans.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOP rejected a Democratic stopgap funding bill this week for the very reason it contained a proposed suspension of the debt ceiling. McConnell and company have been adamant about not helping the Democrats out with making way for the reconciliation package.
"We will support a clean continuing resolution that will prevent a government shutdown," McConnell stated on CNN. He added: "We will not provide Republican votes for raising the debt limit."
Adding to the uncertainty, Biden has said he's not in favor of reforming the filibuster in order to suspend or raise the debt ceiling, kneecapping their effort by tossing their last resort out the window.
So its very likely a government shutdown can be avoided or at least kept brief, but it is equally as probable that the the Treasury Department will, in Janet Yellen's words, "exhaust its extraordinary measures" in the likely absence of a debt ceiling increase or suspension. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it needs to be increased from $22 trillion to $28.5 trillion.
The deadline for the debt limit— known as the X date— is not able to be precisely calculated, but it can be estimated, and Treasury Secretary Yellen predicted the X date will be on October 18. If we pass that day without a raise or suspension of the debt ceiling, then the U.S. could very well default on its debts for the first time, sparking widespread consequences and a potential global recession.
The debt ceiling means the maximum amount of money the Treasury is able to borrow via bond sales. This money is used to pay for a vast and varied list of obligations that include Social Security payments, Medicare reimbursements, tax refunds, the salaries of military personnel, servicing national debt, and others. Because the government spends more than it accumulates from taxes, no congressional permission to take out debt means the U.S. Treasury can't pay for it's obligations. In the big picture, if unleashed with a default, this tumbling pile of bricks' most drastic downsides will effect normal Americans the most.
Not only is our dysfunctional political system dropping the ball on helping out everyday Americans socially and financially, it is now also dangling the whole lot of them over a dangerous cliff with the hazard of economic disaster.
So, all in one short period, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the budget reconciliation package, the threat of a government shutdown, and disputes over the debt ceiling have set up for some kind of unfunny joke. Like some kind of a X, Y, and Z walk into a bar routine. And it's unfunny simply because it is the kind of humor that showcases the same slapstick bits and the same old clichés from our self-serving politicians and corporate media outlets, but most of all because the punchline is a literal punch to the guts of ordinary Americans everywhere.
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