Progressives Held Out, but Reconciliation Will Face Massive Reduction
Progressives held their own, but the chances of the full reconciliation bill passing is a fantasy as the White House shifts to deciding what flavor of price reduction they want to take.
With progressives having held their own throughout last week, the path towards passing the $3.5 trillion was kept alive for now as Pelosi announced a new October 31 deadline to vote on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure plan. However, in a comedown of sadness— as Washington is so prone to induce— the chances of the full reconciliation bill as it stands now passing is a fantasy as the White House shifts to deciding what flavor of price reduction they want to take.
The agreement made months ago indicated that the reconciliation package would need to be passed in tandem with the bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) in order to ensure that "moderate" Democrats don't pass the BIF and leave reconciliation behind.
Back in August, House "moderate" Democrats lead by Rep. Josh Gottheimer threw a hissy fit in an attempt to push through the BIF as soon as possible without regard for the reconciliation bill. Their concerns were, of course, guided by the whims of Big Pharma and fossil fuel donors who's entrenched power stands to lose a hefty amount with the drug pricing reform and clean energy initiatives of the budget reconciliation.
To appease these nine "moderate" corporatists, Pelosi promised a September 27 deadline to vote on the BIF in the House, which has already passed the Senate.
Monday the 27th came and went, though, and it was due to the progressive caucus's willingness to sink the BIF if the reconciliation plan is not passed along with it. With a potential shutdown lurking at the end of the week, Pelosi promised a Thursday vote.
But when Thursday came around, there was no vote, just the passing of a continuing resolution, or a stopgap funding bill, to fund the government through early December. The continuing resolution got through Senate Republicans because it did not include a raise or suspension of the debt ceiling— an issue that is still unresolved at this point in time as an October 18 X-date looms, McConnell points fingers at Democrats and Democrats point fingers at McConnell even as a simple, legal solution exists.
With the threat of a shutdown gone and with progressives "holding the line," a 30-day extension on surface transportation program passed on Friday, opening up the month of October to sort out the two bills.
Gottheimer was enraged at the decision, declaring it "deeply regrettable that Speaker Pelosi breached her firm, public commitment to Members of Congress and the American people" in a letter. He went on to write that a "small far left faction" caused this broken promise and that they're putting the whole agenda "at risk."
"We cannot let this small faction on the left — who employ Freedom Caucus tactics, as described by The New York Times today — destroy the President's agenda," he decried near the end of the letter.
Likely blinded by his donor interests, Gottheimer fails to recognize that the agreement Sanders made with Democratic leadership precedes the arbitrary deadline he forced. Given the agreement and the mischievous intent of many "moderates" to seek vast reduction or complete disapproval of the reconciliation bill, the stance the progressive caucus is taking is to be expected— they are wielding power and that's the game.
The comparison to the Freedom Caucus from the Tea Party days is a bogus attempt to use the partisan binary to try and make the progressives look like unhinged political extremists. Of course, he again fails to recognize something obvious: the overlap of power leverage tactics in no way indicates overlap of political philosophies.
No matter what the "moderates" say they're angry about is proving to be a blatant disguise for their real financial interests.
Coal king Joe Manchin assured protesters in kayaks from atop his yacht on Friday that they're all in the same boat, even as it's his top line number of $1.5 trillion— a number less than half the amount of the $3.5 trillion that was already a compromise— that will likely guide the reconciliation discussion in the coming weeks.
His "moderate" corporatist counterpart in the Senate, Kyrsten Sinema, left D.C. amid negotiations on Friday to go back to Arizona. A spokesperson said she departed for a doctor's appointment for "a foot injury." However, The New York Times confirmed that Sen. Sinema will be at her PAC's retreat with donors for cocktails and dinner at a ritzy resort and spa in Phoenix, AZ.
Sinema also wrote a letter after the House BIF vote was delayed again, calling it "inexcusable and deeply disappointing for communities across our country." The biggest obstacle to the whole process who's been totally uninterested in engaging with her colleagues proclaimed that the progressives were merely using an "ineffective stunt to gain leverage over a separate proposal."
Like Gottheimer, Sinema misses the initial agreement and neglects to see the fact that her Senatorial career is nothing but a stunt to further her career in the private sector when her time is up in the Senate. With such a perpetually disengaged and sour demeanor, and without any effort to hide it, she's likely not thinking about her political career too far beyond the end of her term in 2024, and with one-third of Democrats viewing her negatively, it's unlikely she would even survive the primary. Hell, Sen. Sinema even earned over a $1,000 this past August as a paid intern at a winery in Sonoma, CA, so she's got lots of options outside of public service.
The misdirected scorn for the progressive stand against relinquishing their leverage was felt in the media, too.
The stance from Bernie and House progressives has been the one constant throughout this whole process, and at this pivotal moment, it's produced not only resentment from corporatist "moderates" but also a White House seemingly more committed.
With the new October 31 deadline, the White House signaled a more hands-on approach, a strategy that, despite all the worry about "the President's agenda," was left mostly unused. Along with planning to be more active with Congressional members, Biden is also intending to go around the country and make the case for his agenda.
Biden said this will get done at a Friday caucus meeting. "It doesn't matter if it's in 6 minutes, 6 days or 6 weeks. We're gonna get it done," the President said at the meeting.
However much Biden seems to be stepping up his effort to guide his agenda forward, the pieces of legislation— headlined by the Bernie-negotiated reconciliation bill— face obstacles and tough decisions.
Reports have indicated that many of the House Republicans that were supportive of the BIF are now getting cold feet over the effort as the coupling with the reconciliation bill seems more likely.
Moreover, the White House is going to have to work on a slimmed down version of the reconciliation package.
Jeff Stein of The Washington Post described the White House's "grueling decisions," writing that the path forward is teetering between focusing on a few initiatives or keeping the full range of incentives in a "dramatically reduced form."
In short, painful decisions will have to be made and a slashed version of the bill is almost assured.
"Even a smaller bill can make historic investments," the President said Friday.
Biden has reportedly tried to compromise on a $2.3 trillion package, but Manchin is insistent on his $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion range.
The bulk of the advocation has gone in the direction of focusing on a handful of initiatives in order to ensure that change is created and that future Republican administrations will have trouble undoing or scaling back. Stein notes the example of Obamacare as well as the failure to cut Social Security or Medicare.
The reality about $1.5 trillion, as opposed to $3.5 trillion, is that things get really tight. Such a price tag would limit the scope of change with nothing else feasibly able to fit into the plan alongside climate initiatives, the national paid leave program, and the child tax credit alone. The picking and choosing becomes extremely tough, which often makes the decision between helping the homeless or helping Medicare patients, between improving the environment or lowering drug prices.
Others have advocated that keeping all the programs at a reduced price tag could be a smart way to go. If the funding for these programs is temporary, advocates say, then they can see "what sticks." Plus, it provides reelection strategies to consider as Democrats can campaign on permanently extending the programs.
Which route is taken in the coming month remains to be seen, but if Biden expects to get his reconciliation bill through— or, more likely, a decent compromise of the bill— then he and Democratic leadership will need to exhibit the determination of Bernie and the progressive caucus.
The work is not done for progressives either. A continuation of their resolve is necessary going forward in order to keep the reconciliation plan from being tied to four different horses running in four directions.
The unfortunate reality is that any reconciliation that passes along with the BIF will be dramatically less than the $3.5 trillion compromise, but this does not mean the leverage of power should get complacent— in that case, the whole package is at risk of falling to the wishes of "moderates" that want the BIF now and the reconciliation later, like in 2022.
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